The Online CMO by Philip Hallenborg

I just read eMarketer’s Predictions for 2009. Senior Analyst, David Hallerman expects search marketing spending to grow 14.9% YoY fueled by its “easy measurability” and consumer behavior where fewer click on links but more people search for deals i.e. net net an “inherent strength”.

Although this is the U.S. Market, I would challenge this assumption. Over the past quarter I have seen a severe slump in clicks and increasing difficulties to drive planned transactions using search.

One key problem point, which Hallerman does not touch on, is what impact offline and online display spend decreases will have on overall searches and search “headroom”. The multiplier effects of combined search and display strategies have been discussed by eMarketer’s CEO Geoff Ramsey and also commented on in this forum.

My experience tells me that a lot of business with blue chip brands is driven by the so called “base” i.e. recurring business from incumbent customer base. Nevertheless, customer response to direct marketing does play an important role in maintaining share of voice in the down turn.

It is difficult for me to say whether or not the 14.9% growth is the correct number. What I can say though is that Hellerman’s predictions for Search spend 2009 seem rather bullish from my point of view.